Is Zune another Microsoft Bob. This is the premise of an InfoWorld article found here. For those who are unaware of Bob, it was an attempt by Microsoft to revolutionize the user interface by using wacky characters and home metaphors. That effort went no where. Although I think the situation with Zune is quite different, this is an interesting article.
Zune was developed by the same group that developed the Xbox and we all know how that is turning out. The success of the original Xbox was due to heavy discounting and the killer game "Halo". Next came the Sony PS3 delivery fiasco and Microsoft's almost perfect release execution of the Xbox 360. It will take a Microsoft fumble before Sony can gain back its previous dominant market share. The general consensus is that Sony's PS3 will garner a 50% market share at best and Microsoft's Xbox 360 will garner 40% at a minimum. Not bad for version 2.
Can the same scenario be laid out for Zune. If the first release of Zune is able to gain a decent market share, let's say in the 10% range and Apple's stumbles releasing a future wireless/large screen iPod. The Xbox scenario might be repeatable. Unfortunately those are currently big ifs. To gain a 10% market share Zune needed a differentiator, WIFI, sharing and a larger screen could do it, however WIFI and sharing are looking to be fairly useless and the larger screen is nice but graphic rendering such as album art needs work. All of these can be fixed with a software update, hopefully Microsoft is already working on it. Clearly there is a long road ahead, who would have thought that Sony could have stumbled.
However there is one significant difference between the Sony and Apple wars. The iPod has created a huge ecosystem. Just this week Apple announced a deal with Air France, Continental, Delta Air Lines, Emirates, KLM and United Airlines to equip their aircraft with in seat iPod docking features which will allow the iPod to charge and play using the seats video and audio functionality. WOW!
I like Zune quite well, the problem is that there is not enough of a differentiator for me to give up the iPod's ecosystem. I mostly use the iPod outside the house and traveling. I would say that 70% of my use is in my car, I have integrated my iPod into my BMW's sound system. The sound quality is so good that I dumped my CD changer. Where is Microsoft on this front, FM transmitters just don't work very well. (BTW; here is a link to an excellent Wall Street Journal video on in car iPod installations). The next 20% of my use is while traveling. In addition to listening to music, I watch videos (although the iPod screen is really too small), and backup my digital camera's memory card. The last 10% of my use is outside doing yard work and riding my bike with a Bluetooth adapter and my Motorola HT820 Bluetooth headphones. The only differentiator for my usage pattern is Zune's larger screen to view videos, unfortunately I don't watch enough videos to justify keeping Zune.
I also use my Windows Mobile T-Mobile MDA, with the iTunes Agent add in, around the house in conjunction with my Bluetooth headphones, maybe Microsoft should incorporate Zune into Windows Mobile; that would give me a big reason to dump my iPod.
Comments